Great news y’all (may as well get in the spirit of this post) America has seen its fifth consecutive month of falling unemployment; down by 8.5% to 8.3% with 243,000 jobs being created. Coupled with growth figures from last week showing a rise of 2.8% in GDP in the final quarter of 2011 (1% higher growth on the previous quarter) it’s becoming increasingly apparent that America’s strategy of economic stimulus is comparatively buoyant when next to Europe’s strategy of austerity. Yes, unemployment levels are higher than here in the UK (for now at least), but that’s primarily because of the USA’s private sector economy focus (when compared to our economy at least) and some of the weakest employment protection laws in the world.
What is beginning to emerge is that Europe’s (and more specifically, the UK’s) austerity programmes are not working. If you make too harsh a cuts to the public sector you’ll also damage the private sector as numerous contracts are arranged between the two sectors. That’s right, they’re intertwined, you attack one part too harshly it will have a knock on effect on the other.
It is hugely unlikely Cameron, Clegg and Osborne will take notice of Obama’s successes. But at least the American people hopefully will this November.
You’d think after eight years of George W. Bush as President you would have thought the Republican party would ensure its front-runners for the 2012 Presidential bid would at the very least appear to seem to know what they are talking about. But sadly, they got Michelle Bachmann instead. Now I thought the American right (specifically the Tea Party wing) had lost most of its credibility (primarily) in regards to modern science when one of its darlings, Sarah Palin, said this:
Now, yes you may well be reeling laughter/pity for the Palin. But this has turned out to be nothing when compared to the Tea Party’s newer rising darling, Michelle Bachmann. This is the woman who wishes to close down the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), regards homosexuality as a “disorder” and a “sexual difunction” and wishes to repeal all health care system legislation.
What she done now? You may ask. Well she, like Palin has delved into the realm of scientific ignorance. Bachmann claimed that the HPV vaccine, which is a well-proven preventer of cervical cancer, causes “mental retardation” in children. Yup, you heard right, “mental retardation” in children.
Now I’m not even going to go in to the long long list of scientists and scientific institutions that lined up to show how ridiculous Bachmann’s comments are. But I will provide her with two specific facts:
- HPV, Human Papilloma Virus, or more commonly: genital warts is the most common STD worldwide and is the 2nd largest cause of female cancer (CDC).
- Investigations by the AMA, CDC, WHO, and other major health organizations have cleared the vaccine as safe. Of 23 million administered dosages, 772 (that’s .003%) reported serious effects.
Please Tea Party, grow up!
Well the GOP has seen the very first primary to secure its nomination for President in 2012. And it seems to be developing in to a three horse race between Rick Perry, the Texas governor who recently organised a prayer rally to stem America’s decline (instead of helping America by simply getting on with his job as governor and fixing the problems himself). Mitt Romney the former Governor and second choice candidate to McCain in 2008. And Michelle Bachmann the Representative who wants a Federal Ban on Gay Marriages, the phasing out of social security and Medicare, supports the teaching of creationism in schools in science lessons and refused to compromise an inch during the debt ceiling rise fiasco (this in turn played a large part in America’s credit downgrade).
Now this is where I am glad to live in a country where the likes of Gideon Osborne, David Cameron and even Tony Blair are considered right wing, each of which have nothing on the GOP Presidential hopefuls. Don’t get me wrong, this will be an interesting race, each of the front runners have their own unique strengths. Bachmann is the darling of the Tea Party and can easily whip up widespread Republican grass-root support, Romney is seasoned campaigner after running for the Republican nomination in 2008 and Perry has enormous experience as Texas governor.
Bachmann’s win in Iowa was certainly far from solid, most of the voters in the straw poll were relatively undecided as Perry’s recent arrival will mean Bachmann and Perry will battle it out for the Tea Party and right of the Republican party while Romney takes the relatively moderates.
The GOP would be wise to choose Romney as their candidate for President, as the least Tea Party like front runner he is the one truly capable of capturing the all important swing moderate voters. But with the rise of Bachmann, Palin and Beck amongst the American right, that outcome doesn’t seem certain, which is comforting news for Obama.
Sorry for the lack of blogging in the past couple of weeks, I myself have been working almost full-time with a work-placement on the side. Anyway, I’d like to focus on two of the biggest economic updates in a news dominated by the ongoing phone hacking scandal. The up coming growth figures for Tuesday and the situation over the debt talks in the USA.
First off, who needs a plan B, right? Judging by what is being said by the likes of the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) this stubbornness is not quite paying off. The GDP growth figures are mainly regarded as the be and end all test for a government’s economic credibility. To meet budget forecasts for growth this year the UK will need 0.8% of that well needed boost. What the NIESR is predicting the Office for National Statistics to actually say is that the UK has grown by a mere 0.1% with some City forecasts predicting a contraction.
Now don’t get me wrong, here in BULS we are capable of recognising that the Chancellor (Gideon) can not control every aspect of the economy. The rise in oil and food prices and the growing concern over the Eurozone crisis aren’t the greatest assets ever. In fact, the idea of austerity does have the vague potential to work, as seen in Canada in the 90s and in the UK in the 80s. But these are totally dependant upon favourable economic circumstances in neighbouring nations such as Europe and the USA. Sadly though, we currently don’t have those circumstances. We don’t have secure and confident markets in Europe and the USA and this is something Gideon totally fails to grasp. Cutting spending to reduce the deficit is all very well but once again, it’s pointless without growth to fuel this deficit reduction and with average pay rising at 2.3% and inflation at 4.2% (thank you VAT hike) this recovery is still far from certain.
Turning our attention over across the Atlantic it seems Federal government has seen a roadblock to progress because of dogged stubbornness with Republican House Speaker John Boehner walking out on a crucial debt talks with Senate leaders and the White House. Now anyone who’s studied the US governmental and political structure will always recognise that it is a system based upon compromise. With an increasingly ideologically driven Republican based House of Representatives, Obama has had to make drastic compromises in the name of reaching a deal for the good of America.
The President has already pledged to double his cuts particularly in the area of medicare which many supporters (such as myself) are completely aghast at, with $650bn of extra cuts pledged recently. Either way, this is a man who will attempt to build the bridge with his conservative law-makers. Sadly, it takes two to build a bridge and this is not what we are seeing from the Republican end of the river who refuse to raise any taxes (I thought they were rather keen on deficit reduction?). The Republicans have increasingly gone down the road of stubbornness in the past few years, but now it’s time to walk the walk as well as talk the talk as they put aside ideological differences. Sadly, given the ever increasing grip of the Tea Party, I doubt this much needed maturity will happen any time soon.
Just a quick blog this morning, another will be done on the pension reforms, hopefully, this evening. But anyway, I’m sure you’re probably aware of New York legalising same-sex marriages. Now this is nothing less than a triumph against the forces of bigotry, especially since this had to be pushed through a Republican state Senate but also New York is the third largest American state, so you can tell this was a big target set by the gay rights movements.
You only have to look at what was being spouted out by anti-equality campaigners such as National Organisation for Marriage (NOM) to see that what they were saying was nothing less than vile. While NOM has been veiling its true views behind a smokescreen of claims about the “Government redefinition of marriage”. At the very least, their grass-roots have portrayed the movements true views upon the lines of the usual “it’s wrong and an affront to the family” and simply spouting religious lines and hatred. It’s the sad truth that the NOM is primarily made up Roman Catholics and Christian Evangelicals both of whom spout such vile and hate. And it’s always the case that the establishment, particularly the establishment of bigotry which stands in the way of true justice and equality, throughout history. And this is what is happening in the USA today.
This is why I believe gay rights is the USA’s civil rights movement of our time. But this is a massive step in the right direction and who knows, at this rate Martin Luther King’s dream may come true one day.
So we have the first line up of candidates for the Republican Presidential nomination. Bachmann, Cain, Gingrich, Johnson, Karger, Martin, McMillan, Paul, Pawlenty, Romney, Santorum and Sharkey (yes that is the official line up, but some of the candidates are ahem, professional wrestlers). And the one thing you can notice about the line-up is that the Republicans have in fact lurched to the right (thank you Tea Party). As much as here on BULS we are no fans of the Conservative party, we are hugely glad that the right in this country has nothing on the USA Republican/Tea Party right.
Now Bachmann is presented as a competent version of Palin, but then you remember she’s increasingly becoming a darling of the Tea Party, which automatically negates that theory. What’s her answer to aid the economy? Close down the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). She regarded homosexuals in 2004 as “It’s a very sad life. It’s part of Satan, I think, to say that this is gay. It’s anything but gay.”, a “disorder” and a “sexual dysfunction”. She wishes to repeal all healthcare legislation, she has called for investigations into fellow congressional politicians to see if they are “anti-American” and she has accused Obama of wanting to set up youth indoctrination camps for teenagers. Wow, she makes Gideon Osborne look like a hard-left socialist. On a personal note, I endorse Bachmann for the Republican nomination, simply because Obama could not possibly lose if she is nominated.
Briefly skipping onto the other candidates we have Herman Cain who said he would not be comfortable with a Muslim in his Cabinet and Rick Santorum who thinks the best solution to providing jobs to 14 million unemployed Americans is to repeal healthcare and drill for oil. It’s also good to note that the current front-runner for the nomination, Mitt Romney, ran against McCain for the Republican nomination back in 2008 and lost while McCain ran for the Republican nomination against Bush in 2000 and lost. So logically, the current front-runner for the Republican nomination is a third choice equivalent of George W. Bush Jr.
God help the Republican party in the next few years.
It was never going to win, but an attempt to repeal Obama’s healthcare reforms passed last year have been squandered in the Senate. This has to be Obama’s pivotal piece of legislation, whatever its flaws it represented a true change in the American Health Care system which over the past few decades its cost has spiral out of control with Insurance companies dictating more and more over who is granted such care. Despite all their attacks that this would sap any resources the Federal Reserves might have left, it is important to note that prior to the legislation, America was spending twice as much on Healthcare as a percentage of GDP than we do, any move towards a system more like the NHS, theoretically at least, is going to be cheaper.
I do hope one day Republicans will look back and have the humility to accept their dogged attempts to prevent around 40 million Americans receiving proper healthcare was nothing less than disgraceful.